Afronline – The Voice Of Africa

At the start of one of Africa’s busiest political seasons more than 17 elections are due this year the deepening crisis in Côte d’Ivoire sends a brutal reminder of the limits of electoral politics.

The idea that free-ish multiparty elections supervised by the United  Nations were going to resolve the fissures between the north and south  of the country owed more to hope than to reality on the ground.

Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos is one of the staunchest  supporters of President Laurent Gbagbo, along with sundry Israeli and  Russian officials. His election-winning rival, Alassane Dramane  Ouattara, has corralled a wide range of support, discreetly helped by  French and United States’ diplomats, along with the good offices of UN  Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

Initially, some read the reactions as a positive change in the region’s  political style. Within hours of the Ivorian Conseil Constitutionnel  (led by Gbagbo’s allies) overturning the results issued by the  Commission Electorale Indépendante (CEI, dominated by oppositionists),  Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan convened an emergency meeting of  West African heads of state at Abuja airport to agree a strategy.

Of the seven leaders present, four had credible electoral mandates: Ghana’s John Atta Mills, Liberia’s Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Mali’s Amani  Toumani Touré and Senegal’s Abdoulaye Wade. Two – Burkina Faso’s Blaise  Compaoré and Togo’s Faure Gnassingbé had shot their way to power; Jonathan is the beneficiary of a fraudulent election and the demise of  his predecessor.

Nevertheless, the assembled leaders insisted that democracy was at stake  and that Gbagbo respect the results issued by the CEI and step down for  his rival Ouattara. Such speedy action contrasted tellingly with the  European Union’s laggardly response to Alexander Lukashenko’s violent  election fraud in Belarus and indeed Asia’s mute response to General  Than Shwe’s latest electoral putsch in Myanmar.

As impressive as the sense of urgency was, the diplomatic strategy fell  short. After an unsuccessful mission to Abidjan, the Economic Community  of West African States leaders gave Gbagbo an ultimatum: stand down or  face ‘legitimate force’. Whatever Gbagbo’s view, nothing is as likely to  galvanise Ivorian opinion in his favour as the threat of an Ecowas  military invasion.

Doubtless, sanctions will hit Côte d’Ivoire hard but its economy is much  stronger than that of Zimbabwe, where President Robert Mugabe has held  on regardless. Mugabe and Andry Rajoelina of Madagascar must be watching  Gbagbo’s tactics closely in the lead up to their own electoral battles.

Others with less at stake are looking for alternatives to this kind of  electoral showdown; Côte d’Ivoire’s crisis has prompted more  condemnation of elaborate power-sharing deals.

As the survey of coming elections in this edition of Africa Confidential shows, most will range from widespread fraud to messy multiparty  compromise. Perhaps only Liberia’s elections and the independence  referendum in Sudan are likely to be heralded as an accurate reflection  of the popular view. The stand-offs in Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya and Zimbabwe  defy easy resolution and demand cooler heads.

Source: Africa Confidential